{
  "coverage": [
    {
      "period": "2000—2012",
      "source": "Landsat 5/7 Collection 2 Level-2",
      "resolutionM": 30,
      "availability": "原始影像可用；需历史胶林分类",
      "constraint": "Landsat 7 在 2003-05-31 后有 SLC-off 条带缺口；幼龄及混种地块易漏分",
      "sourceIds": [
        "landsat",
        "slc"
      ]
    },
    {
      "period": "2013—2014",
      "source": "Landsat 8 加入；HLS L30 起于 2013-04-11",
      "resolutionM": 30,
      "availability": "同口径长期序列的过渡期",
      "constraint": "需校准 Landsat 7/8 的光谱与处理差异，HLS 不能延伸到 2000 年",
      "sourceIds": [
        "landsat",
        "hls"
      ]
    },
    {
      "period": "2015—2025",
      "source": "Landsat 主序列；Sentinel-2 及 Sentinel-1 辅助",
      "resolutionM": 30,
      "availability": "近期 10/20 m 光学和雷达可补充分类验证",
      "constraint": "保持主要长期统计的 30 m 网格；不能将 10 m 近期产品直接接为同质长期面积",
      "sourceIds": [
        "landsat",
        "hls"
      ]
    },
    {
      "period": "2026",
      "source": "已入库当年观测",
      "resolutionM": 30,
      "availability": "年度未结束",
      "constraint": "年内观测和全年预测不与完整年度混算",
      "sourceIds": [
        "landsat"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "quantitativeStudies": [
    {
      "id": "grogan2019",
      "region": "柬埔寨全国",
      "period": "2001—2015",
      "method": "MODIS、Landsat、Sentinel 多源；主图年度森林扰动为 MODIS 250 m 时序",
      "metrics": [
        {
          "label": "森林覆盖被清除比例",
          "value": 23.5,
          "unit": "%",
          "reportedPlusMinus": 1.8,
          "denominator": "研究期所用全国森林覆盖",
          "uncertaintyNote": "论文原样报告 ±；此处不另定义置信水平"
        },
        {
          "label": "清除森林中转为橡胶比例",
          "value": 23.2,
          "unit": "%",
          "reportedPlusMinus": 3.6,
          "denominator": "被清除的森林面积",
          "uncertaintyNote": "论文原样报告 ±；此处不另定义置信水平"
        }
      ],
      "interpretation": "历史森林转为橡胶的量化证据",
      "limitation": "不是橡胶改种退出，也不是整个东南亚面积；胶价相关关系不是价格弹性",
      "dataAccess": "已核验公开摘要、图注和数据可用性，未取得完整逐年胶林栅格",
      "sourceId": "grogan2019"
    },
    {
      "id": "ye2018",
      "region": "柬埔寨 Seima 保护区",
      "period": "1995—2015",
      "method": "Landsat NDVI shapelet 时序识别建立事件及此前地类",
      "metrics": [
        {
          "label": "2010、2011 年种植活动占研究期比例",
          "value": 57,
          "unit": "%",
          "denominator": "研究区域与研究期间的橡胶种植活动"
        },
        {
          "label": "2015 年胶林分类总体精度",
          "value": 89,
          "unit": "%",
          "denominator": "2015 年分类验证样本"
        }
      ],
      "interpretation": "早期 Landsat 时序可识别局部橡胶扩张与种植事件",
      "limitation": "不能外推全国，不能把总体精度当年度变化精度，未将活动占比转成未公开的公顷数",
      "dataAccess": "作者机构公开摘要；未取得完整逐年栅格",
      "sourceId": "ye2018"
    }
  ],
  "climateSources": [
    {
      "name": "CHIRPS v3",
      "period": "1981 年起",
      "resolution": "0.05°",
      "use": "月度和季节降雨异常",
      "access": "匿名 HTTP，免费数据",
      "caveat": "全历史保持同一版本；日数据有拆分方案差异，不等于割胶时段站点雨天",
      "sourceIds": [
        "chirps3",
        "chirps_download"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "ERA5-Land",
      "period": "1950 年起",
      "resolution": "小时；0.1°发布网格，约 9 km 原生尺度",
      "use": "温度、土壤水分与降水再分析",
      "access": "CDS 免费数据，API 需账号密钥",
      "caveat": "不是直接地面观测；按变量累积规则聚合",
      "sourceIds": [
        "era5land"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "MCD64A1 C6.1",
      "period": "2000-11 起；本次目录结构化可用期至 2026-06",
      "resolution": "月度 500 m",
      "use": "烧毁面积及质量",
      "access": "NASA Earthdata 原始下载通常需账号；数据本身无收费",
      "caveat": "2000 年仅年末，完整年度从 2001 年起；QA 无效不是未烧，小地块可能漏检",
      "sourceIds": [
        "mcd64"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "FIRMS MODIS / VIIRS",
      "period": "MODIS 科学档案 2000-11 起；VIIRS 2012 年起",
      "resolution": "MODIS 约 1 km；VIIRS 375 m",
      "use": "热异常位置",
      "access": "历史下载或免费 MAP_KEY API",
      "caveat": "火点不是烧毁公顷；不能拼接不同分辨率火点数量推导长期增长",
      "sourceIds": [
        "firms"
      ]
    },
    {
      "name": "NOAA CPC RONI / ONI",
      "period": "历史可回溯至 1950 年",
      "resolution": "三个月滑动 ENSO 指数",
      "use": "长期天气驱动变量",
      "access": "匿名公开表格",
      "caveat": "NOAA 已转向 RONI；选择同一指数及版本的完整历史，不拼接 ONI、RONI、月 Niño3.4 或预测",
      "sourceIds": [
        "roni",
        "roni_change"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "methodRisks": [
    {
      "title": "历史底图与幸存者偏差",
      "detail": "用约 2000 年多季 Landsat 和历史标签重建；不能只回溯 2020 年仍存胶林，必须纳入早已退出的胶林。"
    },
    {
      "title": "跨传感器不可直接拼接",
      "detail": "固定 30 m 网格及统计定义，利用重叠年检验 Landsat 5/7/8 和 Sentinel 的光谱、分辨率、物候差异；HLS 只覆盖 2013 年后。"
    },
    {
      "title": "树龄左截断",
      "detail": "2000 年前已种胶地块只能给出种植年上界或年龄下界；首个观测年、林冠扰动年、实际种植年不是同一日期。"
    },
    {
      "title": "近期幼林待确认",
      "detail": "裸地和幼树未必能确定未来作物，保留未知状态；不得把晚近幼龄胶林缺少成冠信号解释为永久退出。"
    },
    {
      "title": "重植、灾害与改种",
      "detail": "落叶、病害、火灾、暂时清除和重新种胶均可能改变林冠；持续时序与替代作物标签才支持改种认定。"
    },
    {
      "title": "真实观测质量",
      "detail": "C2 SR = DN × 0.0000275 − 0.2；先缩放后计算 NDVI。云、云影、填充、饱和和条带缺口单独筛选，缺测不是无胶林。"
    },
    {
      "title": "误差校正与可比面积",
      "detail": "对国家、年代、稳定及各变化类型做独立分层验证，使用联合转换误差矩阵、校正面积和置信区间；不用两个单年总体精度代替变化精度。"
    },
    {
      "title": "遥感状态不等于供给量",
      "detail": "胶树冠、种植地、成熟面积、未割面积和开割面积分开；卫星不能直接确认割胶，产量需结合树龄、天气与割胶行为。"
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "landsat",
      "title": "USGS Landsat Surface Reflectance",
      "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/landsat-surface-reflectance",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "landsat_c2",
      "title": "USGS Collection 2 Level-2 Science Products",
      "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/landsat-missions/landsat-collection-2-level-2-science-products",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "slc",
      "title": "USGS Landsat 7 SLC-off",
      "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/what-landsat-7-etm-slc-data?items_per_page=6&page=1",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "scale",
      "title": "USGS Landsat Level-2 scale factors",
      "url": "https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-do-i-use-a-scale-factor-landsat-level-2-science-products",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "hls",
      "title": "NASA HLS Data",
      "url": "https://hls.gsfc.nasa.gov/hls-data/",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "grogan2019",
      "title": "Grogan et al. Unravelling the link between global rubber price and tropical deforestation in Cambodia",
      "url": "https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0325-4",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "ye2018",
      "title": "Ye et al. Monitoring rubber plantation expansion using Landsat data time series and a Shapelet-based approach",
      "url": "https://commons.clarku.edu/faculty_geography/31/",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "yan2026",
      "title": "颜晓剑等，1987—2022年柬埔寨橡胶林时空演变及胶价响应研究",
      "url": "https://www.rddl.com.cn/CN/10.13284/j.cnki.rddl.20260249",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "jayathilake2023",
      "title": "The conversion of rubber to oil palm and other landcover types in Southeast Asia",
      "url": "https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0143622822002090",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "fdp2026a",
      "title": "Forest Data Partnership rubber model 2026a",
      "url": "https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/projects_forestdatapartnership_assets_rubber_model_2026a",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "chirps3",
      "title": "CHIRPS v3 官方介绍",
      "url": "https://www.chc.ucsb.edu/data/chirps3",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "chirps_download",
      "title": "CHIRPS v3 官方下载",
      "url": "https://data.chc.ucsb.edu/products/CHIRPS/v3.0/",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "era5land",
      "title": "ERA5-Land hourly data from 1950 to present",
      "url": "https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/datasets/reanalysis-era5-land?tab=overview",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "mcd64",
      "title": "MCD64A1.061 MODIS Burned Area Monthly Global 500m",
      "url": "https://developers.google.com/earth-engine/datasets/catalog/MODIS_061_MCD64A1",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "firms",
      "title": "NASA FIRMS API Science Archive",
      "url": "https://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/content/academy/data_api/firms_api_use.html",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "roni",
      "title": "NOAA CPC historical RONI",
      "url": "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "roni_change",
      "title": "NOAA RONI Information Circular, May 2026",
      "url": "https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/pdf/roni-info-may-2026.pdf",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "pc",
      "title": "Planetary Computer STAC",
      "url": "https://planetarycomputer.microsoft.com/api/stac/v1",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    },
    {
      "id": "gfc",
      "title": "Hansen Global Forest Change 2025 v1.13",
      "url": "https://storage.googleapis.com/earthenginepartners-hansen/GFC-2025-v1.13/download.html",
      "checkedOn": "2026-09-12"
    }
  ]
}