{ "metadata": { "version": "rubber-descriptive-cycle-20260912-r1", "asOf": "2026-09-12", "methodClass": "descriptive_not_causal", "matchedLevelYears": [ 2000, 2024 ], "matchedGrowthYears": [ 2001, 2024 ], "matchedLevelsN": 25, "matchedGrowthN": 24, "priceMonthlyRange": [ "2000M01", "2026M08" ], "completePriceYears": [ 2000, 2025 ], "partialPriceYear": 2026, "priceBasis": "名义美元/kg；WB TSR20近月基准月均的简单年均；未扣通胀，非胶农收购价。", "areaBasis": "FAO Area harvested原始口径，不等于总种植、幼龄林、实际开割或卫星胶林面积。", "supplyVintage": "2025-12-31", "sourceFiles": [ { "path": "data/long_history_supply.json", "sha256": "1adbaaf95f03272b28c776ff4b48609d4cda2efff9e1720cdf85a0617598b771" }, { "path": "data/long_history_prices.json", "sha256": "6676166aba6d949fe947d5919e9ed2bf697ce449af768f3315bd0a8562f38182" } ], "reproduce": "python3 scripts/analyze_rubber_cycle.py; Python standard library only; no network or Wind", "missingPolicy": "原值null；不插补、不延用、不混接2025/26其他机构供给；同比须本年与上年同时有效。" }, "readerTakeaways": [ { "id": "inertia", "title": "胶价先回落，供给仍可能继续增加", "text": "2011—2017年，TSR20年均价下跌63.1%，全球年产量净增19.6%，FAO采收面积净增23.0%。这与供给调整慢相容，但没有直接观测到对应的新植队列。", "evidenceType": "同版端点观察＋机制解释", "sourceIds": [ "FAOSTAT_QCL", "G09" ] }, { "id": "no_clock", "title": "有滞后，不等于有固定七年时钟", "text": "用2001—2024年的增长率检验，提前5—7年的胶价变化与后来全球产量、面积增长没有稳定强相关。成熟需时这一机制，不能直接升级为每7年重复或2026必涨的规律。", "evidenceType": "小样本描述统计＋限制", "sourceIds": [ "FAOSTAT_QCL", "G09" ] }, { "id": "geography", "title": "传统产区减产，可以与全球增产同时发生", "text": "2019—2024年，泰印马合计年产量减少149.09万吨；科特迪瓦与柬埔寨增加114.61万吨，其余全球增加72.54万吨，全球仍净增38.06万吨。判断大周期必须同时跟踪旧产区与新增产区。", "evidenceType": "同版国家增量桥接；年度端点差", "sourceIds": [ "FAOSTAT_QCL" ] } ], "methods": { "growth": "主要使用ln(X[t]/X[t-1])；端点变化、同比和图表百分比另用X[t]/X[t-1]-1。", "lagDirection": "k=1表示上一年的价格变化与本年供给增长配对；k=7表示提前七年，绝不是用未来价格解释过去供给。", "lagChoice": "完整报告0—7年，不挑最大相关系数作为成熟年数或周期；5—7年检验受生物成熟机制启发，但本数据没有新植队列。", "correlation": "Pearson与Spearman均无量纲，仅描述增长率关联；不是弹性或斜率。未计算水平相关作为研究结论。", "priceLevelLead": "补充corr(ln年度名义价格水平[t−k],供给对数增长[t])及对日历年线性趋势残差的相关；不是水平对水平，也不能视为当地实质收益或弹性。", "commonWindow": "所有滞后另统一结果年份2008—2024，n=17，防止样本窗口变化冒充滞后特征。", "uncertainty": "删去一年、前后分段、区组bootstrap和国别面积大变动排除仅作稳定性诊断；bootstrap近似区间不作显著性星号，未校正多重检验。", "turningPoints": "原始月价两侧各12个月局部极值、同类连续候选保留更极端值；首尾12个月不能确认。另展示6/18个月规则敏感性，不是正式经济周期划分。", "episodeWindows": "2008、2011、2017、2021是事后选取的代表性年均价格局部高点，用于展示后续路径；未选入微小的2019局部高点。这些案例不是随机试验、完整事件样本或因果识别。", "index": "2011=100仅用于不同单位路径可视化；不是实价或供需平衡指标。" }, "annual": [ { "year": 2000, "tsr20NominalUsdKg": 0.63, "priceUsdKg": 0.63, "areaHa": 7462279.0, "priceGrowth": null, "productionGrowth": null, "areaGrowth": null, "priceMonths": 12, "completePriceYear": true, "priceStatus": "全年12个月均价的算术平均", "tsr20AnnualYoY": null, "tsr20LogChange": null, "productionT": 7094492.53, "productionYoY": null, "productionLogChange": null, "areaHarvestedHa": 7462279.0, "areaHarvestedYoY": null, "areaHarvestedLogChange": null, "apparentYieldKgHa": 950.7139213100985, "productionSourceFlag": "A", 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"excludingAreaReviewYears2005_2006_2023": null }, { "metric": "production", "lagYears": 5, "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]/P[t-k-1]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); k>=0 means price changes precede supply changes", "n": 19, "outcomeYears": [ 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.043392897821661496, "spearman": -0.0912280701754386, "priceChangeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "approximateInterval": { "lower": -0.3790048835186039, "upper": 0.37285688795980515, "nominalCoverage": 0.95, "method": "paired_circular_moving_block_percentile_bootstrap", "blockLengthYears": 3, "replications": 2000, "seed": 260917, "interpretation": "描述性、近似区间；非因果置信区间，未校正跨滞后多重比较。" }, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], 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0.17845859782264908, "spearman": 0.0629514963880289, "priceChangeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 ], "approximateInterval": { "lower": -0.238345092188146, "upper": 0.588887274400756, "nominalCoverage": 0.95, "method": "paired_circular_moving_block_percentile_bootstrap", "blockLengthYears": 3, "replications": 2000, "seed": 260918, "interpretation": "描述性、近似区间；非因果置信区间，未校正跨滞后多重比较。" }, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.1855689119128935, "spearman": 0.10049019607843138 }, "leaveOneYearOut": { "minimum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2012, "pearson": 0.046900313661627745 }, "maximum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2009, "pearson": 0.35991806809036714 }, "signChanges": false }, "earlyOutcomeWindow2001To2012": { "n": 6, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ], 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ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); k>=0 means price changes precede supply changes", "n": 24, "outcomeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.22625138656562213, "spearman": -0.28782608695652173, "priceChangeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "approximateInterval": { "lower": -0.6201339104913004, "upper": 0.186057097192854, "nominalCoverage": 0.95, "method": "paired_circular_moving_block_percentile_bootstrap", "blockLengthYears": 3, "replications": 2000, "seed": 261012, "interpretation": "描述性、近似区间；非因果置信区间，未校正跨滞后多重比较。" }, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.12966068008560003, "spearman": -0.14460784313725492 }, 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precede supply changes", "n": 23, "outcomeYears": [ 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.020662385345121315, "spearman": 0.039525691699604744, "priceChangeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "approximateInterval": { "lower": -0.17266962821578233, "upper": 0.20530726226085266, "nominalCoverage": 0.95, "method": "paired_circular_moving_block_percentile_bootstrap", "blockLengthYears": 3, "replications": 2000, "seed": 261013, "interpretation": "描述性、近似区间；非因果置信区间，未校正跨滞后多重比较。" }, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.028027876977174248, "spearman": 0.00980392156862745 }, "leaveOneYearOut": { "minimum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2012, "pearson": -0.051033614454926456 }, "maximum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2013, "pearson": 0.0791258142873918 }, "signChanges": true }, "earlyOutcomeWindow2001To2012": { "n": 11, "outcomeYears": [ 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ], "pearson": 0.0757938325994082, "spearman": 0.03636363636363636 }, "lateOutcomeWindow2013To2024": { "n": 12, "outcomeYears": [ 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.27744304893652155, "spearman": -0.15384615384615385 }, "excludingAreaReviewYears2005_2006_2023": { "n": 20, "outcomeYears": [ 2002, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.008588093938791301, "spearman": 0.004511278195488722 } }, { "metric": "area_harvested", "lagYears": 2, "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]/P[t-k-1]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); k>=0 means price changes precede supply changes", "n": 22, "outcomeYears": [ 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.2974768969671678, "spearman": 0.38226990400903443, "priceChangeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 ], "approximateInterval": { "lower": -0.006641159187227012, "upper": 0.6143499299716917, "nominalCoverage": 0.95, "method": "paired_circular_moving_block_percentile_bootstrap", "blockLengthYears": 3, "replications": 2000, "seed": 261014, "interpretation": "描述性、近似区间；非因果置信区间，未校正跨滞后多重比较。" }, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.4244225738684903, "spearman": 0.375 }, "leaveOneYearOut": { "minimum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2012, "pearson": 0.1703193929205154 }, "maximum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2006, "pearson": 0.43277359027806345 }, "signChanges": false }, "earlyOutcomeWindow2001To2012": { "n": 10, "outcomeYears": [ 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ], "pearson": 0.4128559033193767, "spearman": 0.5515151515151515 }, "lateOutcomeWindow2013To2024": { "n": 12, "outcomeYears": [ 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.03116592492507489, "spearman": 0.14685314685314685 }, "excludingAreaReviewYears2005_2006_2023": { "n": 19, "outcomeYears": [ 2003, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.4512557716412115, "spearman": 0.47368421052631576 } }, { "metric": "area_harvested", "lagYears": 3, "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]/P[t-k-1]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); k>=0 means price changes precede supply changes", "n": 21, "outcomeYears": [ 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.02831111754543934, "spearman": 0.07922077922077922, "priceChangeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 ], "approximateInterval": { "lower": -0.2968455037970948, "upper": 0.36513497911295306, "nominalCoverage": 0.95, "method": "paired_circular_moving_block_percentile_bootstrap", "blockLengthYears": 3, "replications": 2000, "seed": 261015, "interpretation": "描述性、近似区间；非因果置信区间，未校正跨滞后多重比较。" }, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.0061246872243845615, "spearman": 0.022058823529411766 }, "leaveOneYearOut": { "minimum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2005, "pearson": -0.1192919360390369 }, "maximum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2006, "pearson": 0.1689054798025944 }, "signChanges": true }, "earlyOutcomeWindow2001To2012": { "n": 9, "outcomeYears": [ 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ], "pearson": -0.2528830408965324, "spearman": -0.13333333333333333 }, "lateOutcomeWindow2013To2024": { "n": 12, "outcomeYears": [ 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.4214975692002604, "spearman": 0.2937062937062937 }, "excludingAreaReviewYears2005_2006_2023": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.0010955237164691392, "spearman": 0.07120743034055728 } }, { "metric": "area_harvested", "lagYears": 4, "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]/P[t-k-1]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); k>=0 means price changes precede supply changes", "n": 20, "outcomeYears": [ 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.14985899058725757, "spearman": -0.10827067669172932, "priceChangeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 ], "approximateInterval": { "lower": -0.5316382483482494, "upper": 0.25383369590632043, "nominalCoverage": 0.95, "method": "paired_circular_moving_block_percentile_bootstrap", "blockLengthYears": 3, "replications": 2000, "seed": 261016, "interpretation": "描述性、近似区间；非因果置信区间，未校正跨滞后多重比较。" }, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.14059920779913662, "spearman": 0.10784313725490197 }, "leaveOneYearOut": { "minimum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2014, "pearson": -0.24133995672947228 }, "maximum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2006, "pearson": 0.008654080293613918 }, "signChanges": true }, "earlyOutcomeWindow2001To2012": { "n": 8, "outcomeYears": [ 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ], "pearson": -0.6290700454427203, "spearman": -0.40476190476190477 }, "lateOutcomeWindow2013To2024": { "n": 12, "outcomeYears": [ 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.0917021517132836, "spearman": -0.08391608391608392 }, "excludingAreaReviewYears2005_2006_2023": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.13904454982954126, "spearman": 0.10294117647058823 } }, { "metric": "area_harvested", "lagYears": 5, "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]/P[t-k-1]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); k>=0 means price changes precede supply changes", "n": 19, "outcomeYears": [ 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.0790892445012768, "spearman": -0.14736842105263157, "priceChangeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "approximateInterval": { "lower": -0.3928501870150263, "upper": 0.4335617955433639, "nominalCoverage": 0.95, "method": "paired_circular_moving_block_percentile_bootstrap", "blockLengthYears": 3, "replications": 2000, "seed": 261017, "interpretation": "描述性、近似区间；非因果置信区间，未校正跨滞后多重比较。" }, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.054823105723503594, "spearman": -0.24754901960784315 }, "leaveOneYearOut": { "minimum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2006, "pearson": -0.055669909324122135 }, "maximum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2014, "pearson": 0.14014670880206684 }, "signChanges": true }, "earlyOutcomeWindow2001To2012": { "n": 7, "outcomeYears": [ 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ], "pearson": 0.5675415019216844, "spearman": 0.32142857142857145 }, "lateOutcomeWindow2013To2024": { "n": 12, "outcomeYears": [ 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.2968246619971665, "spearman": -0.4405594405594406 }, "excludingAreaReviewYears2005_2006_2023": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.11890344922389472, "spearman": -0.27450980392156865 } }, { "metric": "area_harvested", "lagYears": 6, "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]/P[t-k-1]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); k>=0 means price changes precede supply changes", "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.08773898220862589, "spearman": -0.08152734778121776, "priceChangeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 ], "approximateInterval": { "lower": -0.5085420388022923, "upper": 0.5272401954095017, "nominalCoverage": 0.95, "method": "paired_circular_moving_block_percentile_bootstrap", "blockLengthYears": 3, "replications": 2000, "seed": 261018, "interpretation": "描述性、近似区间；非因果置信区间，未校正跨滞后多重比较。" }, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.08739937539149616, "spearman": -0.04656862745098039 }, "leaveOneYearOut": { "minimum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2008, "pearson": -0.09390732819775503 }, "maximum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2009, "pearson": 0.19763790042066606 }, "signChanges": true }, "earlyOutcomeWindow2001To2012": { "n": 6, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ], "pearson": 0.3615104156533579, "spearman": 0.4857142857142857 }, "lateOutcomeWindow2013To2024": { "n": 12, "outcomeYears": [ 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.21049836583002535, "spearman": -0.32167832167832167 }, "excludingAreaReviewYears2005_2006_2023": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.12420248774508769, "spearman": -0.041666666666666664 } }, { "metric": "area_harvested", "lagYears": 7, "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]/P[t-k-1]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); k>=0 means price changes precede supply changes", "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.1663176622824802, "spearman": -0.10294117647058823, "priceChangeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 ], "approximateInterval": { "lower": -0.615923114035551, "upper": 0.32730859131235523, "nominalCoverage": 0.95, "method": "paired_circular_moving_block_percentile_bootstrap", "blockLengthYears": 3, "replications": 2000, "seed": 261019, "interpretation": "描述性、近似区间；非因果置信区间，未校正跨滞后多重比较。" }, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.1663176622824802, "spearman": -0.10294117647058823 }, "leaveOneYearOut": { "minimum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2022, "pearson": -0.24941828406225292 }, "maximum": { "omittedOutcomeYear": 2008, "pearson": -0.04739444234041125 }, "signChanges": false }, "earlyOutcomeWindow2001To2012": { "n": 5, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ], "pearson": -0.8743143788627447, "spearman": -0.9 }, "lateOutcomeWindow2013To2024": { "n": 12, "outcomeYears": [ 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.0852656095575423, "spearman": 0.1888111888111888 }, "excludingAreaReviewYears2005_2006_2023": { "n": 16, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.18267545344685113, "spearman": -0.1323529411764706 } } ], "priceLevelLeadRelations": [ { "metric": "production", "lagYears": 0, "n": 24, "outcomeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.10007240726738524, "spearman": 0.06260869565217392, "priceLevelYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": 0.2422077112418952, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.6901182884255044, "spearman": 0.5727554179566563 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "production", "lagYears": 1, "n": 24, "outcomeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.1119522222165283, "spearman": -0.20434782608695654, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": 0.056664937563437136, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.4733545448836606, "spearman": 0.25696594427244585 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "production", "lagYears": 2, "n": 23, "outcomeYears": [ 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.2512229054170491, "spearman": -0.1907114624505929, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": -0.09434577310715876, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.3154817794808036, "spearman": 0.2982456140350877 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "production", "lagYears": 3, "n": 22, "outcomeYears": [ 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.3874630752038968, "spearman": -0.2896668548842462, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": -0.23793236576052187, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.12361221213833858, "spearman": 0.11248710010319918 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "production", "lagYears": 4, "n": 21, "outcomeYears": [ 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.18599516720103565, "spearman": -0.06753246753246753, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": -0.0053703429238018165, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.2663284010103383, "spearman": 0.30030959752321984 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "production", "lagYears": 5, "n": 20, "outcomeYears": [ 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.10189093859184907, "spearman": 0.04962406015037594, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": 0.06822795326258492, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.19533722766175665, "spearman": 0.3023735810113519 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "production", "lagYears": 6, "n": 19, "outcomeYears": [ 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.06723479126433375, "spearman": 0.008771929824561403, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": 0.14893644826868221, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.1339798544239334, "spearman": 0.14963880288957687 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "production", "lagYears": 7, "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.03239589239884787, "spearman": 0.023735810113519093, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", 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"linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": 0.13608748730985223, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.30938697480874033, "spearman": 0.19504643962848298 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "area_harvested", "lagYears": 1, "n": 24, "outcomeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.21972747447146718, "spearman": 0.14782608695652175, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": 0.27010529140921946, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.40581365116078466, "spearman": 0.27966976264189886 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "area_harvested", "lagYears": 2, "n": 23, "outcomeYears": [ 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.23057066871872917, "spearman": 0.23517786561264822, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": 0.285600527835865, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.3883300130677346, "spearman": 0.2776057791537668 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "area_harvested", "lagYears": 3, "n": 22, "outcomeYears": [ 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.03699622308028006, "spearman": -0.012987012987012988, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": 0.1017616119350644, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 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"另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" }, { "metric": "area_harvested", "lagYears": 7, "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.039841730186458334, "spearman": 0.17234262125902994, "priceLevelYears": [ 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017 ], "definition": "corr(ln(P[t-k]), ln(Y[t]/Y[t-1])); nominal annual price level versus later annual supply growth, NOT level-versus-level", "linearTimeTrendResidualCorrelation": 0.2299111465935664, "commonOutcomeWindow2007To2024": { "n": 18, "outcomeYears": [ 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.039841730186458334, "spearman": 0.17234262125902994 }, "interpretation": "另检验高价格水平与后来增长的联系；价格仍是名义美元，线性去趋势不能替代通胀/当地收益调整；不是弹性或因果识别。" } ], "countryLagRelations": [ { "country": 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"分国产量/FAO采收面积；多个小样本相关扫描，非估计弹性；不得挑最大格作为成熟年数。" }, { "country": "Thailand", "countryLabel": "泰国", "metric": "production", "lagYears": 3, "n": 21, "outcomeYears": [ 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.20519871859951574, "spearman": -0.14025974025974025, "commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024": { "n": 17, "outcomeYears": [ 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": -0.14622409680111748, "spearman": -0.049019607843137254 }, "sourceFlagCountsForAllAvailableLevels": { "A": 24, "X": 1 }, "warning": "分国产量/FAO采收面积；多个小样本相关扫描，非估计弹性；不得挑最大格作为成熟年数。" }, { "country": "Thailand", "countryLabel": "泰国", "metric": "production", "lagYears": 4, "n": 20, "outcomeYears": [ 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.09815251154751221, "spearman": 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"https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" }, "latestVsHighest": -0.5985663082437276, "latestIsConfirmedTurningPoint": false }, "volatility": [ { "metric": "price", "label": "TSR20名义年均价", "n": 24, "startYear": 2001, "endYear": 2024, "sampleStdLogChange": 0.26495102852897134, "medianAbsoluteLogChange": 0.21477837716828724, "unit": "dimensionless log change; multiply by 100 for log-percentage points" }, { "metric": "production", "label": "全球年产量", "n": 24, "startYear": 2001, "endYear": 2024, "sampleStdLogChange": 0.035318648739640864, "medianAbsoluteLogChange": 0.026371898161454216, "unit": "dimensionless log change; multiply by 100 for log-percentage points" }, { "metric": "area", "label": "FAO全球采收面积", "n": 24, "startYear": 2001, "endYear": 2024, "sampleStdLogChange": 0.030650063185839117, "medianAbsoluteLogChange": 0.019901893562824673, "unit": "dimensionless log change; multiply by 100 for log-percentage points" } ], "priceBrentChangeCorrelation": { "n": 24, "outcomeYears": [ 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024 ], "pearson": 0.5525528321452924, "spearman": 0.5330434782608696, "definition": "同期TSR20与Brent名义年均价对数变化的相关", "interpretation": "提示共同宏观/替代材料因素可能存在；不把油价相关性解释成原因或工具变量有效性。" }, "geographyBridge2019To2024": { "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "unit": "t", "worldChangeT": 380611.7000000011, "groups": [ { "label": "泰国、印尼、马来西亚", "changeT": -1490922.0 }, { "label": "科特迪瓦、柬埔寨", "changeT": 1146110.0 }, { "label": "其余全球（FAO总量减上述国家）", "changeT": 725423.7000000011 } ], "countryChanges": [ { "country": "Thailand", "countryLabel": "泰国", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 4839952.0, "productionEndT": 4789042.0, "changeT": -50910.0, "change": -0.01051869935900196, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "A", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "Indonesia", "countryLabel": "印度尼西亚", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 3448782.0, "productionEndT": 2262088.0, "changeT": -1186694.0, "change": -0.3440907543590752, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "A", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "Malaysia", "countryLabel": "马来西亚", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 639830.0, "productionEndT": 386512.0, "changeT": -253318.0, "change": -0.3959145397996343, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "A", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "Viet Nam", "countryLabel": "越南", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 1182479.92, "productionEndT": 1327473.0, "changeT": 144993.08000000007, "change": 0.12261779464297384, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "A", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "Cambodia", "countryLabel": "柬埔寨", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 287638.0, "productionEndT": 527200.0, "changeT": 239562.0, "change": 0.83285935794297, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "X", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "Côte d'Ivoire", "countryLabel": "科特迪瓦", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 780051.0, "productionEndT": 1686599.0, "changeT": 906548.0, "change": 1.1621650379270072, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "A", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "Lao People's Democratic Republic", "countryLabel": "老挝", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 182000.0, "productionEndT": 350300.0, "changeT": 168300.0, "change": 0.9247252747252748, "startSourceFlag": "X", "endSourceFlag": "X", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "Myanmar", "countryLabel": "缅甸", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 264943.0, "productionEndT": 330300.0, "changeT": 65357.0, "change": 0.24668324884975257, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "X", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "China, mainland", "countryLabel": "中国大陆", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 839909.0, "productionEndT": 877600.0, "changeT": 37691.0, "change": 0.044875099564357646, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "X", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "India", "countryLabel": "印度", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 702000.0, "productionEndT": 876000.0, "changeT": 174000.0, "change": 0.24786324786324787, "startSourceFlag": "X", "endSourceFlag": "X", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "Sri Lanka", "countryLabel": "斯里兰卡", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 74750.0, "productionEndT": 69271.0, "changeT": -5479.0, "change": -0.0732976588628762, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "A", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "Philippines", "countryLabel": "菲律宾", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 431674.76, "productionEndT": 364556.59, "changeT": -67118.16999999998, "change": -0.15548319294832058, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "A", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "country": "Brazil", "countryLabel": "巴西", "startYear": 2019, "endYear": 2024, "productionStartT": 217433.0, "productionEndT": 263672.0, "changeT": 46239.0, "change": 0.21265861207820347, "startSourceFlag": "A", "endSourceFlag": "A", "sourceUrl": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" } ], "unlistedCountriesResidualT": 161440.79000000103, "interpretation": "端点年度产量的增減量，非五年累计生产；不直接与其他来源国别序列比较。柬埔寨产量末年为X外部非官方数值。" }, "areaReportingReviewYears": [ { "year": 2005, "worldChangeHa": 772072.0, "indonesiaChangeHa": 604331.0, "indonesiaChange": 0.22591306363221753, "indonesiaFlag": "A", "interpretation": "需要核对国别报送口径的明显变动；不预先认定数据错误，也不认定为真实新植或改种。" }, { "year": 2006, "worldChangeHa": -455380.0, "indonesiaChangeHa": -553533.0, "indonesiaChange": -0.16879140059846476, "indonesiaFlag": "A", "interpretation": "需要核对国别报送口径的明显变动；不预先认定数据错误，也不认定为真实新植或改种。" }, { "year": 2023, "worldChangeHa": -4384.0, "indonesiaChangeHa": -404347.0, "indonesiaChange": -0.11367347260065241, "indonesiaFlag": "A", "interpretation": "需要核对国别报送口径的明显变动；不预先认定数据错误，也不认定为真实新植或改种。" } ], "limitations": [ "25个年度水平最多只有24个增长率，7年滞后只剩17对；分段更少。无法稳定同时估计7个分布滞后系数。", "差分降低共同趋势造成的虚假相关风险，但不能消除同时性、遗漏需求/库存/汇率/病害/劳工、序列相关或版本误差。", "胶价与产量同时受到全球需求、库存、油价等影响；同期正相关不等于供给曲线斜率，领先相关也不能证明因果。", "名义美元基准不能替代当地扣通胀、成本和汇率后的种胶收益，国际胶价至胶农收益的传导未估计。", "采收面积与新植面积是不同变量；不能从价格对采收面积的最强相关滞后反推出精确成熟期。", "全球面积仍含估计、插补和国别报送差异；印尼2005/2006/2023显著变动保留原值并单列诊断，未擅自修正。", "同版FAO只保证来源版本一致，不保证所有国家都采用实际开割面积；A官方标记也不能证明变化为实测改种。", "全球供给扩张可以由不同地区轮替推动；聚合相关可能掩盖各国不同树龄、制度与天气。", "16个全球、96个国别滞后相关格都属探索性统计；不挑选偶然最高值、不报告发现某个固定周期。", "月均峰谷不能替代日内极值；局部峰谷数量随窗口变化，2026末端尚不能确认转折。", "2025完整年价和2026年内价仅用于价格图；无同版供给，不能进入供给—价格匹配检验。", "未估计供给/需求弹性，不更新网页情景模型弹性假设；没有同版消费和库存，不能据此验证当前可交割短缺。" ], "chartSuggestions": [ { "id": "inertia_2011", "title": "2011年高价之后，价格回落而产量与面积继续扩张", "kind": "indexed_small_multiples", "data": "annual, 2000—2024", "fields": [ "priceIndex2011Equals100", "productionIndex2011Equals100", "areaIndex2011Equals100" ], "unit": "2011=100", "note": "三个同尺度小图或三线指数图；标出2011和2017，保留面积口径警示。不要双轴拉伸制造相关。" }, { "id": "lag_grid", "title": "提前几年胶价变化，与后来供给增长有多相关？", "kind": "heatmap_with_numeric_table", "data": "lagRelations.commonOutcomeWindow2008To2024", "fields": [ "metric", "lagYears", "pearson", "n" ], "unit": "r, −1至+1", "note": "两行（产量、面积）×八列（0—7年），固定色域，列明每格n=17。点击展开全样本、Spearman及区间；不标为弹性或预测。" }, { "id": "regional_bridge", "title": "传统产区减少149万吨，为什么全球仍增加？", "kind": "waterfall", "data": "geographyBridge2019To2024.groups", "fields": [ "label", "changeT" ], "unit": "2019→2024年产量变化（万吨）", "note": "吨除10000；三组相加等于全球变化；不是2019—2024累计生产或面积。" }, { "id": "monthly_price", "title": "价格峰谷与后来的供给路径", "kind": "monthly_line", "data": "原始long_history_prices.monthly + turningPoints", "unit": "名义美元/kg", "note": "用TSR20避免RSS1→RSS3断点；标出2008、2011、2016月均极值。12个月极值规则可切换，2026末端单列未确认。" } ], "sources": [ { "id": "FAOSTAT_QCL", "title": "FAOSTAT QCL Natural rubber in primary forms，2025-12-31同版", "url": "https://bulks-faostat.fao.org/production/Production_Crops_Livestock_E_All_Data_(Normalized).zip" }, { "id": "G09", "title": "World Bank Pink Sheet，2026-09-02发布完整历史月价", "url": "https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/74e8be41ceb20fa0da750cda2f6b9e4e-0050012026/related/CMO-Historical-Data-Monthly.xlsx" } ], "validation": { "annualPriceMeansMatchFrozenInput": true, "matchedSupplyYears": 25, "futureSupplyYearsRemainNull": [ 2025, 2026 ], "lagPairsZeroYears": 24, "lagPairsSevenYears": 17, "geographicBridgeCloses": true, "growthYear2000IsNull": true, "firstGrowthYearIs2001": true, "notARegressionOrElasticityEstimate": true }, "modelVersion": "rubber-20260912-r4" }